The Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Coalition for Survival removes Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government from power within 12 months of its September 20, 2026 formation (by September 20, 2027).

The trajectory

The record since

• 24 Sep 26 No. 86 · revised to 30%
  The Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Coalition materially escalated: TPLF and allied fighters seized federal airports at Mekelle, Shire and Axum and both sides now call it a return to full-scale war, a sharper move toward the call than the coalition's formation alone. Held below even because Addis Ababa still retains an untested but real drone-warfare edge it lacked in the 2020-2022 war.
• 25 Sep 26 No. 87 · revised to 35%
  The rebel coalition's offensive spread on Sept. 23-24 from Tigray into neighboring Afar and Amhara -- a genuine multi-front expansion beyond the airport seizures already priced in -- but federal forces' claim of killing 272 Tigrayan fighters in Amhara is a real counter-signal, so this moves only modestly rather than sharply.
• 27 Sep 26 No. 89 · revised to 40%
  Analysts report Eritrea-Ethiopia relations have deteriorated sharply since 2020-22, meaning Eritrea may not repeat its prior role backing federal forces this time -- a modest new risk factor for Abiy's government even as federal forces claim battlefield gains in Amhara.

What would overturn it

Abiy Ahmed's resignation, removal, or flight from power, or the coalition's forces taking Addis Ababa or forcing a negotiated transitional government -- versus the federal government holding, as it did through the 2020-2022 Tigray war.

The verdict

Open  Resolves by 20 Sep 27 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.