Houthi forces do not fully encircle Taiz city -- cutting off its last remaining supply corridors -- within 30 days of September 22, 2026 (by October 22, 2026).
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
A confirmed closure of Taiz's remaining supply routes by Houthi forces, versus continued contested-but-open access.
The verdict
Miss Resolved 26 Oct 26.
AFP reported Oct 4 that Houthis seized al-Safiya and cut the Taiz-Aden road, leaving Taiz effectively encircled, within the window.
With the Houthi offensive already advancing, a partial siege should not be assumed stable.
As logged at issue
Houthi forces are likely to keep Taiz's remaining supply corridors open rather than achieve a full encirclement within 30 days, since the city has resisted repeated sieges for years and the highlands offensive is meeting stiffer resistance than the coastal campaign did -- unless the corridor fighting tips decisively before mid-October.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-09-22-02 — recorded 22 Sep 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-09-22-02.html