The United States announces a new or expanded formal security-assistance package with Ecuador -- new funding, equipment, or personnel explicitly tied to counter-narcotics cooperation -- within 12 months of President Noboa's September 21, 2026 public appeal (by September 21, 2027).
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
A named U.S. security-assistance announcement (State, DoD, or DEA) citing Ecuador cocaine-trafficking cooperation, versus continued ad hoc or unannounced cooperation.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 21 Sep 27 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
Roughly even odds Washington announces a new or expanded formal security-assistance package with Ecuador within the year, since Noboa's public dollar-figure appeal reads as an opening bid for exactly that kind of commitment, though the administration has so far preferred quieter operational cooperation to headline announcements.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-09-22-03 — recorded 22 Sep 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-09-22-03.html