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The Tabularium · Call 2026-09-23-01Open

Colombia's Congress does not pass enabling legislation to formally designate criminal groups as terrorist organizations within 60 days of President De La Espriella's September 22, 2026 request (by November 21, 2026).

National SecuritySouth America & CaribbeanColombia
Issued No. 85 · 23 Sep 26  ·  Due 21 Nov 26  ·  Opening call 70% — likely

The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.

The trajectory

The call stands at its probability until revised; each dot is a recorded reading.0%50%100%23 Sep 26 — 70% (No. 85): Opening calltodaydue 21 Nov 2670%23 Sep 26

The record since

The call stands as issued — no revisions.

What would overturn it

A signed law or final congressional passage of terrorist-designation enabling legislation, versus the bill remaining in committee or draft stage.

The verdict

Open  Resolves by 21 Nov 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.

As logged at issue

Unlikely Colombia's Congress passes enabling legislation to formally designate criminal groups as terrorist organizations within 60 days of President De La Espriella's September 22 request, given the complexity of drafting and passing security legislation on that timeline -- unless the "Shield of the Americas" coalition's political momentum accelerates it.

Cite this call

The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-09-23-01 — recorded 23 Sep 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-09-23-01.html