Colombian security forces capture or kill Fredy Castillo Carrillo, alias 'Pinocho,' leader of the Autodefensas Conquistadoras de la Sierra Nevada, within 60 days of President De La Espriella's September 22, 2026 public vow (by November 21, 2026).
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
An official confirmation of Castillo Carrillo's capture or death, versus the operation stalling or Castillo Carrillo evading forces as ACSN leadership has for years.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 21 Nov 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
Likely Colombian security forces capture or kill Fredy Castillo Carrillo, alias "Pinocho," within 60 days, given President De La Espriella's explicit public vow and the momentum from an operation that just killed Castillo Carrillo's deputy and his own son -- tempered by ACSN's history of evading capture for years.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-09-23-02 — recorded 23 Sep 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-09-23-02.html