Within six months, IOM or UNHCR documents Sudanese refugees who transited Chad moving onward toward Libya or Atlantic-coast departure points (by March 27, 2027).
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
IOM/UNHCR onward-movement or secondary-displacement reporting naming Libya or Atlantic-coast routes confirms this; Chad's refugee population continuing to be reported as static/hosted in place through the window, with no such onward-movement reporting, resolves it false.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 27 Mar 27 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
UNHCR reported Sudanese refugee crossings into eastern Chad have surged to roughly 400 people a day, with the agency funded at only about a fifth of the $1.6 billion it says the response needs.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-09-27-03 — recorded 27 Sep 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-09-27-03.html