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The Tabularium · Call 2026-09-28-03Hit

The Philippines lodges a formal diplomatic protest with China or issues an expulsion order over the September 28, 2026 Jia Hai Ke 7 GPS-spoofing incident near Batanes, within 14 days (by October 12, 2026).

National SecurityAsia / PacificPhilippinesChina
Issued No. 90 · 28 Sep 26  ·  Due 12 Oct 26  ·  Opening call 60% — likely

The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.

The trajectory

The call stands at its probability until revised; each dot is a recorded reading.0%50%100%28 Sep 26 — 60% (No. 90): Opening calldue 12 Oct 26Hit60%28 Sep 26

The record since

The call stands as issued — no revisions.

What would overturn it

A formal DFA protest note or Coast Guard expulsion action confirms this; the incident being absorbed without formal diplomatic action resolves it false.

The verdict

Hit  Resolved 12 Oct 26.

Coast Guard forced Jia Hai Ke 7 out of its loiter position Oct 1 and DFA formally rejected China's jurisdiction claim Oct 2.

Source: https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2026/10/02/2560479/dfa-rejects-chinas-claim-over-batanes-waters

As logged at issue

The Philippine Coast Guard accused a Chinese research vessel of spoofing its GPS location while loitering near a Luzon Strait submarine-cable corridor, ignoring repeated radio challenges.

Cite this call

The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-09-28-03 — recorded 28 Sep 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-09-28-03.html