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The Tabularium · Call 2026-09-29-01Open

Health authorities or WHO confirm at least one case of Bundibugyo Ebola in South Sudan by 2026-11-30.

Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityAfrica / Middle EastSouth SudanDR Congo
Issued No. 91 · 29 Sep 26  ·  Due 30 Nov 26  ·  Opening call 30% — unlikely

The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.

The trajectory

The call stands at its probability until revised; each dot is a recorded reading.0%50%100%29 Sep 26 — 30% (No. 91): Opening calltodaydue 30 Nov 2630%29 Sep 26

The record since

The call stands as issued — no revisions.

What would overturn it

A WHO Disease Outbreak News item or South Sudan Ministry of Health statement confirming a case in South Sudan.

The verdict

Open  Resolves by 30 Nov 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.

As logged at issue

Health authorities are unlikely to confirm a case of Bundibugyo Ebola in South Sudan within 60 days (by November 30). A confirmed case there, or in another country bordering Haut-Uélé, is the signal that would overturn this.

Cite this call

The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-09-29-01 — recorded 29 Sep 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-09-29-01.html