At least one EU member state signs a formal agreement with Rwanda, Uganda or Uzbekistan to receive its rejected asylum seekers by 2027-09-29.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
A government announcement or signed text of a transfer agreement between an EU member state and Rwanda, Uganda or Uzbekistan.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 29 Sep 27 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
At least one EU member state will likely sign a formal agreement with Rwanda, Uganda or Uzbekistan to receive its rejected asylum seekers within 12 months (by September 29, 2027). Repeated slippage of the pilot beyond mid-2027, or court rulings blocking such transfers, is the signal that would overturn this.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-09-29-04 — recorded 29 Sep 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-09-29-04.html