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The Tabularium · Call 2026-09-30-01Open

Mexico’s attorney general’s office (FGR) publicly announces an investigation or arrest warrant naming Carlos Alberto Torres Torres by 2026-11-14.

Transnational Organized CrimeNorth AmericaMexicoUnited States
Issued No. 92 · 30 Sep 26  ·  Due 14 Nov 26  ·  Opening call 20% — unlikely

The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.

The trajectory

The call stands at its probability until revised; each dot is a recorded reading.0%50%100%30 Sep 26 — 20% (No. 92): Opening calltodaydue 14 Nov 2620%30 Sep 26

The record since

The call stands as issued — no revisions.

What would overturn it

An FGR statement, court filing or credible wire report of a Mexican federal investigation or warrant naming Torres Torres.

The verdict

Open  Resolves by 14 Nov 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.

As logged at issue

It is unlikely that Mexico’s attorney general publicly announces an investigation or arrest warrant for Carlos Alberto Torres Torres within 45 days (by November 14), despite the Sept 29 US sanctions. A federal announcement naming him is the signal that would overturn this.

Cite this call

The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-09-30-01 — recorded 30 Sep 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-09-30-01.html