The Council of the EU adopts a legal act establishing a sanctions regime targeting migrant smugglers (asset freezes and travel bans) by 2027-09-30.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
Publication in the Official Journal of a Council decision and regulation establishing the smuggler sanctions framework.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 30 Sep 27 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
It is a roughly even chance that the EU Council adopts a legal act creating a sanctions regime for migrant smugglers within 12 months (by September 30, 2027). Progress stalling behind the asylum-opt-out dispute among member states is the signal that would overturn this.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-09-30-04 — recorded 30 Sep 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-09-30-04.html