Saudi crude loadings at Yanbu average at least 4 million barrels per day in a reported week by 2026-11-15.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
Reuters, Kpler or Vortexa-reported weekly Yanbu loadings of 4 million bpd or more.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 15 Nov 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
It is likely that Saudi crude loadings at Yanbu reach an average of at least 4 million barrels per day in a reported week by November 15. A renewed attack that shuts the pipeline again is the signal that would overturn this.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-10-01-03 — recorded 1 Oct 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-10-01-03.html