Average daily transits through the Strait of Hormuz recover to at least half the pre-war level in any 30-day window ending by 2027-03-31, per IMF PortWatch.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
IMF PortWatch daily Hormuz transit series.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 31 Mar 27 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
It is a roughly even chance that average daily transits through the Strait of Hormuz recover to at least half the pre-war level in any 30-day window ending by March 31, 2027, as measured by IMF PortWatch. A reopening agreement that is not followed by transits within weeks is the signal that it does not.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-10-01-04 — recorded 1 Oct 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-10-01-04.html