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The Tabularium · Call 2026-10-02-02Open

UK police charge at least one person arrested in the RAF Fairford investigation with a terrorism-related offence by 2026-10-31.

National SecurityEuropeUnited KingdomIran
Issued No. 94 · 2 Oct 26  ·  Due 31 Oct 26  ·  Opening call 50% — roughly even

The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.

The trajectory

The call stands at its probability until revised; each dot is a recorded reading.0%50%100%2 Oct 26 — 50% (No. 94): Opening calltodaydue 31 Oct 2650%2 Oct 26

The record since

The call stands as issued — no revisions.

What would overturn it

A UK charging announcement; release of the 27-year-old without charge would overturn it.

The verdict

Open  Resolves by 31 Oct 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.

As logged at issue

There is a roughly even chance that UK police charge at least one person arrested in the RAF Fairford investigation with a terrorism-related offence by October 31. Release of the 27-year-old without charge would overturn it.

Cite this call

The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-10-02-02 — recorded 2 Oct 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-10-02-02.html