Between October 3 and November 15, 2026, Saudi-backed Yemeni ground forces begin an offensive toward Bab el-Mandeb, confirmed by a Saudi or coalition statement or by advances reported by at least two major wire services.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
A Saudi/coalition statement or two wire reports of ground advances; a launch pushed past November 15 would overturn it.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 15 Nov 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
Roughly even chance that by 15 November Saudi-backed Yemeni ground forces begin an offensive toward Bab el-Mandeb, shown by a Saudi or coalition statement or advances reported by at least two major wire services; a launch pushed past that date would overturn it.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-10-03-01 — recorded 3 Oct 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-10-03-01.html