By November 30, 2026, at least two major wire services report Ethiopian and Eritrean state forces directly exchanging fire, rather than through proxies.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
Two wire reports of a direct state-on-state clash; a negotiated de-escalation would reinforce the call.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 30 Nov 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
Unlikely that by 30 November at least two major wire services report Ethiopian and Eritrean state forces directly exchanging fire rather than through proxies; two such wire reports would overturn it.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-10-04-01 — recorded 4 Oct 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-10-04-01.html