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The Tabularium · Call 2026-10-04-02Open

By January 31, 2027, India's Border Security Force Punjab Frontier reports 2026 heroin recoveries above 1,000 kg.

Transnational Organized CrimeAsia / PacificIndia
Issued No. 96 · 4 Oct 26  ·  Due 31 Jan 27  ·  Opening call 72% — likely

The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.

The trajectory

The call stands at its probability until revised; each dot is a recorded reading.0%50%100%4 Oct 26 — 72% (No. 96): Opening calltodaydue 31 Jan 2772%4 Oct 26

The record since

The call stands as issued — no revisions.

What would overturn it

The BSF year-end figure; a total at or below 1,000 kg would overturn it.

The verdict

Open  Resolves by 31 Jan 27 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.

As logged at issue

Likely that by 31 January 2027 the BSF Punjab Frontier reports 2026 heroin recoveries above 1,000 kg, up from 850 kg through September; a reported year-end total at or below 1,000 kg would overturn it.

Cite this call

The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-10-04-02 — recorded 4 Oct 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-10-04-02.html