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The Tabularium · Call 2026-10-04-03Open

By November 15, 2026, Brazil's electoral court declares Lula the winner of the presidential election, in either round.

PartnershipsSouth America & CaribbeanBrazil
Issued No. 96 · 4 Oct 26  ·  Due 15 Nov 26  ·  Opening call 52% — roughly even

The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.

The trajectory

The call stands at its probability until revised; each dot is a recorded reading.0%50%100%4 Oct 26 — 52% (No. 96): Opening call5 Oct 26 — 38% (No. 97): First-round count put Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of Lula, roughly 47% to 45%, heading into the October 25 runoff.26 Oct 26 — 97% (No. 118): NPR reports Lula won the 25 October runoff with just over 51% of the vote on more than 96% counted; formal electoral-court declaration is the remaining step.todaydue 15 Nov 2697%4 Oct 26

The record since

  • 5 Oct 26 No. 97 · revised to 38%
    First-round count put Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of Lula, roughly 47% to 45%, heading into the October 25 runoff.
  • 26 Oct 26 No. 118 · revised to 97%
    NPR reports Lula won the 25 October runoff with just over 51% of the vote on more than 96% counted; formal electoral-court declaration is the remaining step.

What would overturn it

The electoral court's declaration; a declaration for Flavio Bolsonaro would overturn it.

The verdict

Open  Resolves by 15 Nov 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.

As logged at issue

Roughly even chance that by 15 November Brazil's electoral court declares Lula the winner of the presidential election, in either round; a declaration for Flavio Bolsonaro would overturn it.

Cite this call

The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-10-04-03 — recorded 4 Oct 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-10-04-03.html