UKMTO reports at least one attack on a merchant vessel in the Strait of Hormuz or Gulf of Aden on at least 10 of the 14 days from October 6 to October 19, 2026.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
UKMTO advisories day by day; five or more attack-free days would overturn it.
The verdict
Non liquet Resolved 19 Oct 26.
UKMTO reported many Hormuz-area attacks in the window but also said it under-reports; a day-by-day count of 10 of 14 days cannot be established.
Day-count thresholds over voluntary-reporting feeds are ungradeable; avoid them.
Source: https://www.seatrade-maritime.com/security/ukmto-struggling-to-accurately-report-hormuz-attacks
As logged at issue
Roughly even chance that UKMTO reports at least one attack on a merchant vessel in the Strait of Hormuz or Gulf of Aden on at least 10 of the 14 days from 6 to 19 October; five or more attack-free days would overturn it.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-10-05-01 — recorded 5 Oct 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-10-05-01.html