The Cursus Publicus

Intelligence from the Global Frontier

← The Tabularium · Editions

The Tabularium · Call 2026-10-07-02Open

Brent crude futures settle above $110 a barrel on at least one trading day by November 7, 2026.

Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityAfrica / Middle EastIranOman
Issued No. 99 · 7 Oct 26  ·  Due 7 Nov 26  ·  Opening call 25% — unlikely

The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.

The trajectory

The call stands at its probability until revised; each dot is a recorded reading.0%50%100%7 Oct 26 — 25% (No. 99): Opening call28 Oct 26 — 90% (No. 120): Brent traded near $116 on 27 October after the Ras Tanura attack, per Bloomberg via Rigzone; a settlement above $110 is likely already in hand.todaydue 7 Nov 2690%7 Oct 26

The record since

  • 28 Oct 26 No. 120 · revised to 90%
    Brent traded near $116 on 27 October after the Ras Tanura attack, per Bloomberg via Rigzone; a settlement above $110 is likely already in hand.

What would overturn it

Daily Brent front-month settlement; a strike that halts loadings at a major Gulf export terminal would overturn it.

The verdict

Open  Resolves by 7 Nov 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.

As logged at issue

Unlikely that Brent crude settles above $110 a barrel on any day by 7 November; a strike that halts loadings at a major Gulf terminal would overturn it.

Cite this call

The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-10-07-02 — recorded 7 Oct 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-10-07-02.html