Haiti holds a first-round national election vote by December 31, 2027.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
Provisional Electoral Council publication of a dated calendar and voting taking place; a published calendar with security-force control of Port-au-Prince neighborhoods would overturn it.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 31 Dec 27 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
Unlikely that Haiti holds a first-round national vote by 31 December 2027; a published calendar plus a security force retaking Port-au-Prince neighborhoods would overturn it.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-10-07-04 — recorded 7 Oct 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-10-07-04.html