Estonia's cumulative count of illegal migrants apprehended since summer exceeds 300 by December 31, 2026.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
A monthly count above 100 from the border police would overturn it.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 31 Dec 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
Unlikely (roughly one in three) that Estonia's cumulative count of illegal migrants apprehended since summer passes 300 by December 31, 2026, because winter usually thins the Belarus route; a border-police statement of a monthly count above 100 would overturn it.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-10-09-01 — recorded 9 Oct 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-10-09-01.html