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The Tabularium · Call 2026-10-09-03Open

The UK National Crime Agency or Home Office announces a second seizure of Channel-crossing boats moved by air freight by January 9, 2027.

Transnational Organized CrimeEuropeUnited Kingdom
Issued No. 101 · 9 Oct 26  ·  Due 9 Jan 27  ·  Opening call 25% — unlikely

The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.

The trajectory

The call stands at its probability until revised; each dot is a recorded reading.0%50%100%9 Oct 26 — 25% (No. 101): Opening calltodaydue 9 Jan 2725%9 Oct 26

The record since

The call stands as issued — no revisions.

What would overturn it

A statement of a new air-cargo find would overturn it.

The verdict

Open  Resolves by 9 Jan 27 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.

As logged at issue

Unlikely that the UK announces a second seizure of Channel-crossing boats moved by air freight by January 9, 2027; a National Crime Agency or Home Office statement of a new air-cargo find would overturn it.

Cite this call

The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-10-09-03 — recorded 9 Oct 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-10-09-03.html