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The Tabularium · Call 2026-10-09-04Open

A Spanish court convicts at least one police officer in the Algeciras cocaine network case by October 9, 2027.

Transnational Organized CrimeEuropeSpainEcuador
Issued No. 101 · 9 Oct 26  ·  Due 9 Oct 27  ·  Opening call 30% — unlikely

The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.

The trajectory

The call stands at its probability until revised; each dot is a recorded reading.0%50%100%9 Oct 26 — 30% (No. 101): Opening calltodaydue 9 Oct 2730%9 Oct 26

The record since

The call stands as issued — no revisions.

What would overturn it

Trial dates set before mid-2027 would overturn it.

The verdict

Open  Resolves by 9 Oct 27 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.

As logged at issue

Unlikely (roughly one in three) that a Spanish court convicts at least one police officer in the Algeciras cocaine case by October 9, 2027; trial dates set before mid-2027 would overturn it.

Cite this call

The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-10-09-04 — recorded 9 Oct 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-10-09-04.html