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The Tabularium · Call 2026-10-10-01Open

At least one EU member state other than Belgium publicly commits a ship to the Aspides Red Sea mission by 2026-11-10.

Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityAfrica / Middle EastYemenSaudi Arabia
Issued No. 102 · 10 Oct 26  ·  Due 10 Nov 26  ·  Opening call 65% — likely

The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.

The trajectory

The call stands at its probability until revised; each dot is a recorded reading.0%50%100%10 Oct 26 — 65% (No. 102): Opening calltodaydue 10 Nov 2665%10 Oct 26

The record since

The call stands as issued — no revisions.

What would overturn it

A Council or Kallas statement that the mission is scaling back would overturn it.

The verdict

Open  Resolves by 10 Nov 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.

As logged at issue

Likely that at least one EU member state other than Belgium publicly commits a ship to the Aspides Red Sea mission by November 10, 2026; a Council or Kallas statement that the mission is scaling back would overturn it.

Cite this call

The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-10-10-01 — recorded 10 Oct 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-10-10-01.html