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The Tabularium · Call 2026-10-10-04Open

ICAO or EASA publicly issues a new or amended flight-crew background-vetting requirement or bulletin that cites the flydubai incident by 2027-04-10.

National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastUnited Arab EmiratesOmanIsrael
Issued No. 102 · 10 Oct 26  ·  Due 10 Apr 27  ·  Opening call 20% — unlikely

The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.

The trajectory

The call stands at its probability until revised; each dot is a recorded reading.0%50%100%10 Oct 26 — 20% (No. 102): Opening calltodaydue 10 Apr 2720%10 Oct 26

The record since

The call stands as issued — no revisions.

What would overturn it

An ICAO or EASA safety bulletin referencing the incident would overturn it.

The verdict

Open  Resolves by 10 Apr 27 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.

As logged at issue

Unlikely that ICAO or EASA publicly issues a new or amended flight-crew background-vetting requirement or bulletin that cites the flydubai incident by April 10, 2027; an ICAO or EASA safety bulletin referencing the incident would overturn it.

Cite this call

The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-10-10-04 — recorded 10 Oct 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-10-10-04.html