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The Tabularium · Call 2026-10-11-01Open

The U.S. military publicly confirms at least one strike on Houthi-controlled territory in Yemen by 2026-11-10.

National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastYemenSaudi ArabiaUnited States
Issued No. 103 · 11 Oct 26  ·  Due 10 Nov 26  ·  Opening call 35% — unlikely

The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.

The trajectory

The call stands at its probability until revised; each dot is a recorded reading.0%50%100%11 Oct 26 — 35% (No. 103): Opening calltodaydue 10 Nov 2635%11 Oct 26

The record since

The call stands as issued — no revisions.

What would overturn it

A Pentagon or CENTCOM statement confirming a strike would overturn it.

The verdict

Open  Resolves by 10 Nov 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.

As logged at issue

Unlikely that the U.S. military publicly confirms a strike on Houthi-controlled Yemen by 10 November; a CENTCOM or Pentagon statement of a strike would overturn it.

Cite this call

The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-10-11-01 — recorded 11 Oct 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-10-11-01.html