The European Commission formally publishes a legislative proposal that adds security-based restrictions on Schengen visas for Russian nationals by 2027-04-11.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
A Commission statement shelving the plan, or a proposal covering only the existing multiple-entry limit, would overturn it.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 11 Apr 27 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
A roughly even chance that the European Commission formally publishes a legislative proposal adding security-based restrictions on Schengen visas for Russians by 11 April 2027; a statement shelving it would overturn it.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-10-11-03 — recorded 11 Oct 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-10-11-03.html