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The Tabularium · Call 2026-10-12-01Open

Reuters, AP or AFP report Ethiopian ground forces operating inside Eritrean territory by 2026-11-30.

National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastEthiopiaEritrea
Issued No. 104 · 12 Oct 26  ·  Due 30 Nov 26  ·  Opening call 30% — unlikely

The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.

The trajectory

The call stands at its probability until revised; each dot is a recorded reading.0%50%100%12 Oct 26 — 30% (No. 104): Opening calltodaydue 30 Nov 2630%12 Oct 26

The record since

The call stands as issued — no revisions.

What would overturn it

A wire report of an Ethiopian ground incursion into Eritrea would overturn it.

The verdict

Open  Resolves by 30 Nov 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.

As logged at issue

Unlikely that Reuters, AP or AFP report Ethiopian ground forces operating inside Eritrean territory by 30 November; a wire report of an Ethiopian incursion across the border would overturn it.

Cite this call

The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-10-12-01 — recorded 12 Oct 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-10-12-01.html