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The Tabularium · Call 2026-10-12-02Open

China's PLA Eastern Theater Command announces a named joint military exercise around Taiwan by 2026-11-15.

National SecurityAsia / PacificChinaTaiwan
Issued No. 104 · 12 Oct 26  ·  Due 15 Nov 26  ·  Opening call 45% — roughly even

The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.

The trajectory

The call stands at its probability until revised; each dot is a recorded reading.0%50%100%12 Oct 26 — 45% (No. 104): Opening calltodaydue 15 Nov 2645%12 Oct 26

The record since

The call stands as issued — no revisions.

What would overturn it

An Eastern Theater Command announcement of a named joint exercise around Taiwan would confirm it.

The verdict

Open  Resolves by 15 Nov 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.

As logged at issue

A roughly even chance that China's Eastern Theater Command announces a named joint exercise around Taiwan by 15 November; an announcement of such a drill after Keen Sword begins would confirm it.

Cite this call

The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-10-12-02 — recorded 12 Oct 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-10-12-02.html