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The Tabularium · Call 2026-10-12-04Open

Saudi Arabia and the Houthis announce a ceasefire or truce, confirmed by the UN special envoy for Yemen, by 2027-04-30.

National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastSaudi ArabiaYemen
Issued No. 104 · 12 Oct 26  ·  Due 30 Apr 27  ·  Opening call 35% — unlikely

The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.

The trajectory

The call stands at its probability until revised; each dot is a recorded reading.0%50%100%12 Oct 26 — 35% (No. 104): Opening calltodaydue 30 Apr 2735%12 Oct 26

The record since

The call stands as issued — no revisions.

What would overturn it

A UN-confirmed Saudi-Houthi truce announcement would overturn it.

The verdict

Open  Resolves by 30 Apr 27 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.

As logged at issue

Unlikely that the Saudi government or the Houthis announce a ceasefire or truce, confirmed by the UN envoy, by 30 April 2027; an announced truce within that window would overturn it.

Cite this call

The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-10-12-04 — recorded 12 Oct 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-10-12-04.html