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The Tabularium · Call 2026-10-13-01Open

Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport resumes scheduled commercial passenger flights by 2026-10-31.

National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastSaudi ArabiaYemen
Issued No. 105 · 13 Oct 26  ·  Due 31 Oct 26  ·  Opening call 50% — roughly even

The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.

The trajectory

The call stands at its probability until revised; each dot is a recorded reading.0%50%100%13 Oct 26 — 50% (No. 105): Opening calltodaydue 31 Oct 2650%13 Oct 26

The record since

The call stands as issued — no revisions.

What would overturn it

A Saudi aviation-authority notice extending the closure into November would overturn it; a GACA announcement of resumed scheduled flights would confirm it.

The verdict

Open  Resolves by 31 Oct 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.

As logged at issue

A roughly even chance that Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport resumes scheduled commercial passenger flights by 31 October; a further Saudi extension of the closure into November would overturn it.

Cite this call

The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-10-13-01 — recorded 13 Oct 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-10-13-01.html