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The Tabularium · Call 2026-10-13-02Open

French authorities release the tanker DF Peak from detention by 2026-12-31 rather than confiscating it.

Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityAfrica / Middle EastFranceRussia
Issued No. 105 · 13 Oct 26  ·  Due 31 Dec 26  ·  Opening call 62% — likely

The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.

The trajectory

The call stands at its probability until revised; each dot is a recorded reading.0%50%100%13 Oct 26 — 62% (No. 105): Opening calltodaydue 31 Dec 2662%13 Oct 26

The record since

The call stands as issued — no revisions.

What would overturn it

A French court order confiscating the vessel or its cargo would overturn it; a reported departure of DF Peak from Réunion would confirm it.

The verdict

Open  Resolves by 31 Dec 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.

As logged at issue

Likely that French authorities release the tanker DF Peak from detention by 31 December, as opposed to confiscating it; a French court order confiscating the vessel or its cargo would overturn it.

Cite this call

The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-10-13-02 — recorded 13 Oct 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-10-13-02.html