The Cursus Publicus

Intelligence from the Global Frontier

← The Tabularium · Editions

The Tabularium · Call 2026-10-13-04Open

Chinese authorities announce the execution of Wei Huairen by 2027-07-31.

Transnational Organized CrimeAsia / PacificChinaMyanmar
Issued No. 105 · 13 Oct 26  ·  Due 31 Jul 27  ·  Opening call 70% — likely

The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.

The trajectory

The call stands at its probability until revised; each dot is a recorded reading.0%50%100%13 Oct 26 — 70% (No. 105): Opening calltodaydue 31 Jul 2770%13 Oct 26

The record since

The call stands as issued — no revisions.

What would overturn it

An appeal ruling commuting his death sentence, or no execution announcement by the date, would overturn it.

The verdict

Open  Resolves by 31 Jul 27 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.

As logged at issue

Likely that China announces the execution of Wei Huairen by 31 July 2027; an appeal ruling that commutes his death sentence would overturn it.

Cite this call

The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-10-13-04 — recorded 13 Oct 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-10-13-04.html