China's coast guard announces a patrol or boarding inside the restricted waters around Pratas (Dongsha) by 2026-11-14.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
- 18 Oct 26 Taiwan reports China Coast Guard ships 3301 and 3303 inside Pratas restricted waters on 16 October; the call still needs a Chinese announcement of a patrol or boarding.
What would overturn it
Beijing letting the water cannon episode pass without a maritime response would overturn it; a China Coast Guard statement or Taiwanese report of a patrol or boarding inside those waters would confirm it.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 14 Nov 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
A roughly even chance that China’s coast guard announces a patrol or boarding inside the restricted waters around Pratas (Dongsha) by 14 November; Beijing letting the water cannon episode pass without a maritime response would overturn it.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-10-14-03 — recorded 14 Oct 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-10-14-03.html