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The Tabularium · Call 2026-10-14-04Open

Imai Yuki leaves Russian custody, whether by release, swap or deportation, by 2027-04-14.

National SecurityAsia / PacificJapanRussia
Issued No. 106 · 14 Oct 26  ·  Due 14 Apr 27  ·  Opening call 30% — unlikely

The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.

The trajectory

The call stands at its probability until revised; each dot is a recorded reading.0%50%100%14 Oct 26 — 30% (No. 106): Opening calltodaydue 14 Apr 2730%14 Oct 26

The record since

The call stands as issued — no revisions.

What would overturn it

Tokyo winning consular access followed by a prisoner exchange would overturn it; a Russian court extending his detention past April 2027 would confirm it stays unresolved.

The verdict

Open  Resolves by 14 Apr 27 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.

As logged at issue

Unlikely that Imai Yuki leaves Russian custody, whether by release, swap or deportation, by 14 April 2027; Tokyo winning consular access followed by a prisoner exchange would overturn it.

Cite this call

The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-10-14-04 — recorded 14 Oct 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-10-14-04.html