U.S. forces strike Houthi targets in Yemen, as announced by the White House or CENTCOM, by 2026-10-31.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
A further Houthi hit on Saudi energy infrastructure would overturn it; a CENTCOM or White House announcement of strikes would confirm it.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 31 Oct 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
Unlikely that U.S. forces strike Houthi targets in Yemen, as announced by the White House or CENTCOM, by 31 October; a further Houthi hit on Saudi energy infrastructure would overturn it.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-10-15-02 — recorded 15 Oct 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-10-15-02.html