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The Tabularium · Call 2026-10-15-03Open

Singapore's Maritime and Port Authority reports another Singapore-flagged vessel hit in or near the Strait of Hormuz by 2026-10-31.

Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityAfrica / Middle EastSingaporeIran
Issued No. 107 · 15 Oct 26  ·  Due 31 Oct 26  ·  Opening call 50% — roughly even

The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.

The trajectory

The call stands at its probability until revised; each dot is a recorded reading.0%50%100%15 Oct 26 — 50% (No. 107): Opening calltodaydue 31 Oct 2650%15 Oct 26

The record since

The call stands as issued — no revisions.

What would overturn it

A verified halt in strikes on shipping would overturn it; a new MPA statement naming a hit Singapore-flagged vessel would confirm it.

The verdict

Open  Resolves by 31 Oct 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.

As logged at issue

A roughly even chance that Singapore’s Maritime and Port Authority reports another Singapore-flagged vessel hit in or near the Strait of Hormuz by 31 October; a verified halt in strikes on shipping would overturn it.

Cite this call

The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-10-15-03 — recorded 15 Oct 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-10-15-03.html