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The Tabularium · Call 2026-10-16-01Hit

Italy ends or lets lapse its Schengen controls on arrivals from Spain, with no further extension announced, by October 24, 2026.

National SecurityEuropeItalySpain
Issued No. 108 · 16 Oct 26  ·  Due 24 Oct 26  ·  Opening call 62% — likely

The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.

The trajectory

The call stands at its probability until revised; each dot is a recorded reading.0%50%100%16 Oct 26 — 62% (No. 108): Opening call22 Oct 26 — 97% (No. 114): Italy and Spain agreed on October 22 not to extend their Schengen suspension, meeting the call's condition ahead of its October 24 deadline.due 24 Oct 26Hit97%16 Oct 26

The record since

  • 22 Oct 26 No. 114 · revised to 97%
    Italy and Spain agreed on October 22 not to extend their Schengen suspension, meeting the call's condition ahead of its October 24 deadline.

What would overturn it

Another one-week extension announced around October 22 would overturn it.

The verdict

Hit  Resolved 26 Oct 26.

On Oct 22 Italy and Spain's interior ministers agreed the border suspensions would not be extended; no further extension followed.

Source: https://www.ilgazzettino.it/italia/politica/schengen_sospensione_italia_spagna_finita_accordo_cosa_cambia-9841563.html

As logged at issue

Italy ends or lets lapse its Schengen controls on arrivals from Spain, with no further extension announced, by October 24. Likely. Another one-week extension would overturn it.

Cite this call

The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-10-16-01 — recorded 16 Oct 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-10-16-01.html