The Cursus Publicus

Intelligence from the Global Frontier

← The Tabularium · Editions

The Tabularium · Call 2026-10-16-03Open

Kenya reports at least one more laboratory-confirmed Ebola case, a third, by 2026-11-06.

Illegal ImmigrationAfrica / Middle EastKenyaDemocratic Republic of the Congo
Issued No. 108 · 16 Oct 26  ·  Due 6 Nov 26  ·  Opening call 45% — roughly even

The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.

The trajectory

The call stands at its probability until revised; each dot is a recorded reading.0%50%100%16 Oct 26 — 45% (No. 108): Opening calltodaydue 6 Nov 2645%16 Oct 26

The record since

The call stands as issued — no revisions.

What would overturn it

The contact list clearing quarantine with no new positives would overturn it.

The verdict

Open  Resolves by 6 Nov 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.

As logged at issue

Kenya reports at least one more laboratory-confirmed Ebola case, a third, by November 6. Roughly even chance. The contact list clearing quarantine with no new positives would overturn it.

Cite this call

The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-10-16-03 — recorded 16 Oct 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-10-16-03.html