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The Tabularium · Call 2026-10-17-03Open

Saudi authorities or Aramco confirm a Houthi missile or drone impact on a Yanbu energy facility by 2026-11-17.

National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastSaudi ArabiaYemen
Issued No. 109 · 17 Oct 26  ·  Due 17 Nov 26  ·  Opening call 28% — unlikely

The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.

The trajectory

The call stands at its probability until revised; each dot is a recorded reading.0%50%100%17 Oct 26 — 28% (No. 109): Opening calltodaydue 17 Nov 2628%17 Oct 26

The record since

The call stands as issued — no revisions.

What would overturn it

Continued interceptions with no confirmed impact would leave it unmet.

The verdict

Open  Resolves by 17 Nov 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.

As logged at issue

Saudi authorities or Aramco confirm a Houthi missile or drone impact on a Yanbu energy facility by 2026-11-17. Unlikely. Continued interceptions with no confirmed impact would leave it unmet.

Cite this call

The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-10-17-03 — recorded 17 Oct 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-10-17-03.html