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The Tabularium · Call 2026-10-17-04Open

The U.S. imposes the Graham Act 100% secondary tariff on at least one country's goods by 2027-10-17.

Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityEuropeRussiaUnited States
Issued No. 109 · 17 Oct 26  ·  Due 17 Oct 27  ·  Opening call 20% — unlikely

The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.

The trajectory

The call stands at its probability until revised; each dot is a recorded reading.0%50%100%17 Oct 26 — 20% (No. 109): Opening calltodaydue 17 Oct 2720%17 Oct 26

The record since

The call stands as issued — no revisions.

What would overturn it

Revocation of the waiver with named target countries would overturn it.

The verdict

Open  Resolves by 17 Oct 27 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.

As logged at issue

The U.S. imposes the Graham Act 100% secondary tariff on at least one country's goods by 2027-10-17. Unlikely. Revocation of the waiver with named target countries would overturn it.

Cite this call

The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-10-17-04 — recorded 17 Oct 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-10-17-04.html