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The Tabularium · Call 2026-10-19-02Open

China's coast guard boards or inspects a Taiwanese-flagged vessel near the Pratas Islands by 2026-12-31.

National SecurityAsia / PacificTaiwanChina
Issued No. 111 · 19 Oct 26  ·  Due 31 Dec 26  ·  Opening call 25% — unlikely

The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.

The trajectory

The call stands at its probability until revised; each dot is a recorded reading.0%50%100%19 Oct 26 — 25% (No. 111): Opening calltodaydue 31 Dec 2625%19 Oct 26

The record since

The call stands as issued — no revisions.

What would overturn it

A boarding would confirm it; continued presence-only patrols leave it unresolved.

The verdict

Open  Resolves by 31 Dec 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.

As logged at issue

China's coast guard boards or inspects a Taiwanese-flagged vessel near the Pratas Islands by 2026-12-31. Unlikely chance. A boarding would confirm it; continued presence-only patrols leave it unresolved.

Cite this call

The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-10-19-02 — recorded 19 Oct 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-10-19-02.html