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The Tabularium · Call 2026-10-20-02Open

Haiti's electoral council or transitional authorities announce a new date for the postponed national elections by 31 December 2026.

Illegal ImmigrationSouth America & CaribbeanHaiti
Issued No. 112 · 20 Oct 26  ·  Due 31 Dec 26  ·  Opening call 25% — unlikely

The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.

The trajectory

The call stands at its probability until revised; each dot is a recorded reading.0%50%100%20 Oct 26 — 25% (No. 112): Opening calltodaydue 31 Dec 2625%20 Oct 26

The record since

The call stands as issued — no revisions.

What would overturn it

A UN-endorsed security plan with a stated voter-registration target would raise the odds.

The verdict

Open  Resolves by 31 Dec 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.

As logged at issue

Haiti’s Provisional Electoral Council or transitional authorities announce a new date for the postponed national elections by 31 December 2026. Unlikely. A UN-endorsed security plan with a stated voter-registration target would raise the odds.

Cite this call

The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-10-20-02 — recorded 20 Oct 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-10-20-02.html