China's full-year 2026 customs data show trade with North Korea above $3.0 billion.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
Weak October and November monthly figures would overturn it.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 28 Feb 27 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
China’s full-year 2026 customs data show trade with North Korea above $3.0 billion, published by 28 February 2027. Roughly even chance. Trade of $2.27 billion through September makes the threshold reachable only if the bridge lifts the fourth quarter; weak October and November monthly figures would overturn it.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-10-20-04 — recorded 20 Oct 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-10-20-04.html