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The Tabularium · Call 2026-10-22-01Open

At least one of the four Salvadorans missing in Haiti is publicly confirmed released or rescued alive by 5 November 2026.

National SecuritySouth America & CaribbeanHaitiEl Salvador
Issued No. 114 · 22 Oct 26  ·  Due 5 Nov 26  ·  Opening call 50% — roughly even

The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.

The trajectory

The call stands at its probability until revised; each dot is a recorded reading.0%50%100%22 Oct 26 — 50% (No. 114): Opening calltodaydue 5 Nov 2650%22 Oct 26

The record since

The call stands as issued — no revisions.

What would overturn it

No confirmed release or rescue by that date would overturn it.

The verdict

Open  Resolves by 5 Nov 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.

As logged at issue

At least one of the four Salvadorans missing in Haiti is publicly confirmed released or rescued alive by 5 November 2026. Roughly even chance. No confirmed release or rescue by that date would overturn it.

Cite this call

The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-10-22-01 — recorded 22 Oct 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-10-22-01.html