A Saudi-announced or Houthi-claimed strike hits a Saudi seaport or oil-export terminal (Yanbu, Jeddah, Ras Tanura or Ju'aymah) by 22 November 2026.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What would overturn it
A Saudi-Houthi ceasefire announced before then would overturn it.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 22 Nov 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
A Saudi-announced or Houthi-claimed strike hits a Saudi seaport or oil-export terminal (Yanbu, Jeddah, Ras Tanura or Ju'aymah) by 22 November 2026. Roughly even chance. A Saudi-Houthi ceasefire announced before then would overturn it.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-10-22-02 — recorded 22 Oct 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-10-22-02.html