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The Tabularium · Call 2026-10-23-02Open

Brent crude settles above $120 a barrel on at least one trading day by 23 November 2026.

Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityAfrica / Middle EastIranUnited States
Issued No. 115 · 23 Oct 26  ·  Due 23 Nov 26  ·  Opening call 45% — roughly even

The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.

The trajectory

The call stands at its probability until revised; each dot is a recorded reading.0%50%100%23 Oct 26 — 45% (No. 115): Opening calltodaydue 23 Nov 2645%23 Oct 26

The record since

The call stands as issued — no revisions.

What would overturn it

A Hormuz de-escalation or a ceasefire extension brokered by Pakistan or Qatar would overturn it.

The verdict

Open  Resolves by 23 Nov 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.

As logged at issue

Brent crude settles above $120 a barrel on at least one trading day by 23 November 2026. Roughly even. A Hormuz de-escalation or a ceasefire extension brokered by Pakistan or Qatar would overturn it.

Cite this call

The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-10-23-02 — recorded 23 Oct 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-10-23-02.html