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The Tabularium · Call 2026-10-23-04Open

A revised Frontex regulation is formally adopted by both the Council and the European Parliament by 31 December 2027.

PartnershipsEuropeEuropean Union
Issued No. 115 · 23 Oct 26  ·  Due 31 Dec 27  ·  Opening call 35% — unlikely

The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.

The trajectory

The call stands at its probability until revised; each dot is a recorded reading.0%50%100%23 Oct 26 — 35% (No. 115): Opening calltodaydue 31 Dec 2735%23 Oct 26

The record since

The call stands as issued — no revisions.

What would overturn it

A trilogue deal before mid-2027 would signal faster passage, while an unresolved EU budget fight would delay it.

The verdict

Open  Resolves by 31 Dec 27 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.

As logged at issue

A revised Frontex regulation is formally adopted by both the Council and the European Parliament by 31 December 2027. Unlikely. A trilogue deal before mid-2027 would signal faster passage, while an unresolved EU budget fight would delay it.

Cite this call

The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-10-23-04 — recorded 23 Oct 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-10-23-04.html