The Cursus Publicus

Intelligence from the Global Frontier

← The Tabularium · Editions

The Tabularium · Call 2026-10-24-01Open

UKMTO's weekly summary published by 7 November 2026 records at least five confirmed attacks on vessels around the Strait of Hormuz.

Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityAfrica / Middle EastIranUAEOman
Issued No. 116 · 24 Oct 26  ·  Due 7 Nov 26  ·  Opening call 50% — roughly even

The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.

The trajectory

The call stands at its probability until revised; each dot is a recorded reading.0%50%100%24 Oct 26 — 50% (No. 116): Opening calltodaydue 7 Nov 2650%24 Oct 26

The record since

The call stands as issued — no revisions.

What would overturn it

A verified halt in strikes by both sides would overturn it; a rise in the Iranian target list's enforcement actions would raise it.

The verdict

Open  Resolves by 7 Nov 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.

As logged at issue

Hormuz: roughly even chance UKMTO's weekly summary published by 7 November records at least five confirmed attacks.

Cite this call

The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-10-24-01 — recorded 24 Oct 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-10-24-01.html